C & S (another experience scan tool)

In our usual thinking practices we are not very particular about the consequence of our decisions in long term. Immediate future is what we always think. (Stock market is a good example of our short term thinking)

With C & S we think of Consequences and Sequels of a particular action or decision in four time zones: (1) Immediate, (2) short-term, (3), medium-term and (4) long Term. The exact period of these time zones depends upon the current situation of action.

For example when deciding to eat junk food C&S time zones can be ‘right now’, ‘tomorrow’, ‘1 month’, ‘1 year’. Thinking about joining a university C&S time zones can be ‘right now’, ‘6 months’, ‘4 years’, ’20 years’.

Please note:

  • C & S aims to make it easier for you to think in long term.
  • All C & S results are speculative because no one knows future.

C & S on facebook usage in business and personal life can be something like this:

Immediate (up to 2 years):

Every one is crazy to join and take advantage of it. Benefits are over-stated by everyone. Businesses and consultancies are being built to teach facebook. A lot of books are being written about facebook. Personal use is soaring thus further fueling its popularity.

A few businesses are prospering by taking advantage of facebook capabilities. A lot more have yet to figure out how to use it for profit. Even more business are hesitant to use it fearing the leakage of trade secrets, customer information and user feed back.

Employees are addicted and spending lot more time. People prefer it over traditional online marketing tools like mailing lists, forums and newsletters.

Short term (2 – 5 years):

Facebook is still popular but people are much more relaxed about its benefits and know its limitations. Everyone knows how to use it. Social media teaching/consulting business is down. People are now considering it as one of the tool rather than the only tool. Some unpleasant events due to privacy leaks have made some people skeptic of its value. People now make sure their kids don’t use it unsupervised. More tools are available to check the credibility of people which you can use before accepting a ‘friend request’.

The traditional online marketing tools (mailing lists, forums, newsletters) are gaining a spot again. Personal use is stable or declining after people are realizing facebook is not the replacement for the real life socializing. Facebook has become more of a communication medium rather than a social place to meet.

People are posting serious updates now. Status messages like ‘whats on the lunch’ and ‘whats the mood’ are now frowned upon. Everyone is tired of all quotable quotes posted on facebook but no one voices his opposition.

Applications and tools, which help you to minimize your facebook time, are thriving. Most facebook interactions are from a desktop client (Outlook, Thunderbird or something similar.)

Medium term (5 – 10 years):

Facebook is popular but in a different way. New facebook features have made it possible to add all sort of new widgets and design elements to personalize your business presence just like a web page. No one pays anyone (except designers) to use social media for their business. A large number of free themes are available which can be installed with a point and click.

A competitor of facebook has become popular. This new competitor offers very strong privacy control for your friends lists. People are using more and more of traditional online tools (mailing lists, forums, newsletters.) Google is able to break into facebook market with a simpler tool and a built-in client in its chrome browser.

Long term (10 – 20 years):

There are a number of technologies which are better and simpler to manage your social interactions than facebook. Facebook still exists but usage is declining fast. People are predicting its fate. Google’s ‘facebook’ is stable.

People use facebook (or similar tools) on their smart phones (everyone has one now) only. Smart phones have innovative advertising models which have attracted facebook advertisers. Traditional online tools (web-pages, forums, mailing lists, blogs) are still recording stable growth.

There are other new things to get addicted to.

Exercises: Do C & S on following situations:

  • Selecting a school for your kid’s education.
  • Joining a university for your further education.
  • Eating pizza every day.

Photo credits: http://www.flickr.com/photos/sprengben/4486555712/

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